Minnesota Vikings quarterback had the NFL by the tail coming into Week 18 of the regular season, and despite a couple of subpar performances that closed the season on a sour note, he hasn’t completely lost control.
The relative weakness of the draft and free agency classes has strengthened the quarterback, who will be eligible for unrestricted free agency in March at the age of 27. Darnold’s next deal is expected to be worth between $100 and $160 million over the course of three or four years.
On Tuesday, Jan. 28, ESPN’s Benjamin Solak conducted an in-depth analysis of the market and estimated it to be in the $30-$40 million area over the next few seasons — with one caveat.
“While the idea of signing Sam Darnold to a four-year, $140 million deal seems preposterous, I wouldn’t be surprised to see those figures at all,” Solak said. “Functionally that ends up playing out more like a two-year, $70 million contract with a couple of team options attached behind it if Darnold plays well.”
As of late January, Darnold’s prospective price point ranged widely, casting doubt on how aggressive Minnesota may be in attempting to re-sign him for the following season.
The Vikings have rookie quarterback J.J. McCarthy, the No. 10 overall pick in 2024, and an established system under head coach Kevin O’Connell that can help entice excellent veterans to compete with McCarthy and/or backup if Darnold leaves.
Beyond the restricted amount of great quarterbacks available this summer, the number of organizations looking for a signal-caller could put Darnold in a good position for free agency. Solak identified the Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers, and New York Giants as potential suitors for Darnold.
If the Tennessee Titans, who choose first overall, and the Cleveland Browns, who pick second, do not take quarterbacks or trade back, either team might be a potential suitor for Darnold. Tennessee would be more likely, given the Browns still have two years to spend on Deshaun Watson’s fully guaranteed $230 million contract, which he signed in 2022.
Given the supply and demand situation that has put Darnold in the driver’s seat heading into the offseason, the Vikings may contemplate taking the wheel by using the franchise tag to lock him in for a one-year contract in 2025.
That tag will cost Minnesota approximately $40 million, however the goal isn’t strictly to keep Darnold, but rather to trade him and recoup some value rather than letting him go in free agency for nothing.
Darnold’s trade value is projected to vary from a late second- or third-round pick in 2025 to a fourth- or sixth-round pick, maybe divided over the next two drafts. Minnesota now has only a first-round pick and two fifth-round picks this April.
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