It’s starting to feel like the Atlanta Braves might not make a significant move this offseason. The team has key needs, particularly in the outfield, but the list of available options is shrinking, with another potential target now off the market.
Top Star had a strong 2024 season with the Orioles despite a .235 batting average. He earned his first All-Star nod, hitting 25 doubles, 44 home runs, and driving in 102 runs. His home run total ranked third in the majors and was the fifth-highest in a single season for a switch-hitter, making him a sought-after player for contending teams.
Although Santander wasn’t a primary target for the Braves, he was a potential fit due to his ability to play the outfield and his switch-hitting versatility. However, on Monday, the Toronto Blue Jays secured his services with a five-year, $92.5 million contract.
Anthony Santander’s contract with Toronto may hurt the Braves’ chances of adding an impact outfielder
The average annual value (AAV) of Santander’s five-year, $92.5 million contract is $18.5 million, aligning with offseason projections. However, $35 million of the deal is deferred, a trend that appears to be gaining popularity. While the salary itself isn’t surprising, the length of the contract raised eyebrows, particularly given Santander’s limitations.
Santander’s low on-base percentage and subpar defense are significant concerns. His profile aligns with players who struggled to maintain productivity as they aged. Notably, Dave Kingman, Jay Bruce, and Khris Davis—players with similar offensive profiles—combined for just 11.3 bWAR after turning 30. Only Kingman played past age 34. Santander, who turned 30 last October, may face similar challenges as he progresses into his 30s.
This is part of the reason Atlanta likely wasn’t inclined to offer Santander a deal longer than two or three years. It also complicates their potential pursuit of Jurickson Profar, another talented switch-hitting outfielder. Despite his agent being Scott Boras, Profar has been seen as a solid fit for the Braves, offering strong defense and consistent offense.
Profar is projected by Fangraphs to earn a three-year, $45 million contract ($15 million AAV) after an impressive 2024 campaign, during which he slashed .280/.380/.459 with 29 doubles, 24 home runs, 85 RBI, and a career-best 139 wRC+. It was a standout year, setting him up for a lucrative deal.
However, Santander’s five-year contract likely emboldens Boras to push for a longer or more lucrative deal for Profar. While a three-year deal at $15 million AAV is reasonable, the current market might push Profar out of the Braves’ comfort zone. As one of the top free-agent outfielders still available, he represents an upgrade over Atlanta’s current options, but his cost could become a major obstacle.
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