At 33 years old, top star heads into the 2025 season with the Cardinals facing uncertainty, aiming to prove he can still perform as a major-league starter.
Cardinals Pitcher Seeks Recovery Following Injury
Since signing with the Cardinals as a free agent in 2022, pitching star has dealt with persistent injury issues. In 2024, he was limited to just 12 games due to a lower-back strain. During those appearances, he struggled, recording a 5.08 ERA and 33 strikeouts over 44.1 innings.
He is now entering the final year of his four-year, $44 million contract and will become an unrestricted free agent after the season. With the Cardinals preparing to retool and reduce payroll, his expiring contract could make him a potential trade asset.
As the veteran left-hander aims to extend his major-league career, the upcoming season will be crucial for his future.
Matz’s Past Performance
Steven Matz began his MLB career with the New York Mets in 2015, quickly establishing himself as a reliable starter. Over his first six seasons, his performance remained around league average. However, Matz delivered the best season of his career during his contract year with the Toronto Blue Jays, throwing 150 innings with a 117 ERA+ and 144 strikeouts. His strong performance earned him a lucrative deal with the Cardinals, who were in dire need of pitching depth at the time.
Unfortunately, Matz’s tenure in St. Louis has been underwhelming. Over three seasons, he has made just 34 starts, largely due to injuries. In 2023, his struggles on the mound even relegated him to a long-relief role in the bullpen at times.
With the Cardinals parting ways with Lance Lynn and Kyle Gibson, Matz has a clear opportunity to remain in the rotation. The pressing question is whether his performance will justify that role.
Matz’s Place Within the Organization
The Cardinals’ efforts to trade third baseman Nolan Arenado have hit a standstill, prompting the organization to focus on moving a pitcher to reduce payroll. Erick Fedde, acquired at the 2024 trade deadline, is the most likely trade candidate. However, Steven Matz and Miles Mikolas, both carrying hefty contracts, could also be moved if a willing trade partner is found.
Like Matz, Mikolas has struggled significantly in recent seasons, making it challenging to offload either contract. As a result, both pitchers are likely to remain with the team through 2025.
If no trades are made, the Cardinals’ rotation will likely consist of Sonny Gray, Fedde, Matz, Mikolas, and Andre Pallante. That said, the team’s openness to exploring internal options at multiple positions suggests that top prospects like Tink Hence or Quinn Mathews could make appearances on the mound during the season.
A Move to the Bullpen?
Steven Matz will need to exceed his career averages if he hopes to secure a permanent spot in the Cardinals’ rotation and avoid another stint in the bullpen.
Baseball Savant data shows that his curveball, sinker, and slider have all experienced declines in vertical movement over the past three seasons. Additionally, his WHIP and walk rate have risen over the last two years. These issues, combined with his consistent struggles to limit baserunners during his time with the Cardinals, have made his position in the rotation increasingly tenuous.
If Matz can remain healthy, his ability to outperform Miles Mikolas and Andre Pallante in controlling base traffic will likely determine his future as a starter.
However, a move to the bullpen could mark a turning point in Matz’s career. In 23 relief appearances, he has posted a 2.97 ERA and a 3.5 strikeout-to-walk ratio, both significantly better than his starting numbers. Despite his fastball averaging just 94 mph, the reduced workload of a long-relief role might help him stay healthier and could even boost his velocity slightly.
Regardless of his role, staying healthy in this contract year is crucial for Matz to maximize his value to both the Cardinals and potential suitors in free agency.
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