Modern baseball managers would likely shake their heads at traditional lineup constructions from just a decade ago. The standard approach featured a speedy but light-hitting leadoff batter, a contact-focused second hitter, and a team’s best offensive weapon batting third. Even Tony La Russa, an innovative Hall of Fame manager, largely adhered to these conventions when crafting his lineups.
From 2001 to 2011, Albert Pujols was the heart of the Cardinals’ offense, cementing his Hall of Fame legacy. Between 2002 and 2011, he logged 6,093 plate appearances in the No. 3 spot (FanGraphs data does not extend prior to 2002). While he thrived in that role, modern analytics suggest he could have been even more productive if positioned differently.
Recent data highlights how frequently the third hitter steps up to the plate with two outs and no one on base—far more often than other key lineup spots. As a result, many teams today place their most potent hitters in the second spot to maximize their opportunities at the plate.
The Cardinals would have benefited had they not batted Pujols third.
Had the Cardinals followed this approach, Pujols might have seen even better results. Today’s teams prioritize placing elite hitters higher in the order to generate more at-bats. If Pujols played in the modern era, he likely would have batted second rather than third, especially considering La Russa’s willingness to shake things up—like his unconventional decision to bat the pitcher eighth.
During the years with available batting order data (2002-2011), the Cardinals’ leadoff hitters posted a .332 on-base percentage, while their No. 2 hitters recorded a .343 OBP. Surprisingly, the fourth and fifth spots in the order produced even higher OBPs—.373 and .357, respectively. Slotting one of those high-OBP hitters at leadoff could have set the table more effectively for Pujols, giving him more chances to drive in runs.
Had La Russa placed Pujols second, not only would he have had more at-bats, but he also would have been better positioned to extend rallies and generate early scoring opportunities. Considering how modern teams like the Yankees and Dodgers now bat sluggers like Aaron Judge and Freddie Freeman second, it’s intriguing to think about how much more damage Pujols could have done if used in a similar fashion.