Chicago Cubs first baseman Michael Busch enters the 2025 season with high expectations following a solid rookie campaign, but underlying metrics hint at a possible sophomore slump. The 27-year-old played a full season in 2024, posting a .248 batting average with 21 home runs, 65 RBIs, and a 118 OPS+. Chicago showed its confidence in Busch by trading Cody Bellinger, securing his role as the team’s everyday first baseman.
However, Bleacher Report recently identified Busch as one of MLB’s biggest bust candidates for 2025. The main concern is the disparity between his actual batting average (.248) and expected batting average (.217), ranking him in the 8th percentile among qualified hitters. While his 11.1% walk rate remains a strength, his hard-hit rate and exit velocity indicate possible regression. His struggles became apparent late in the 2024 season when he hit just .216/.303/.402 in the second half.
If Busch can sustain his power and plate discipline, he could remain a key contributor to Chicago’s lineup. But if his batted-ball metrics are a sign of things to come, the Cubs may need to rethink their long-term first base strategy. With the team eyeing a playoff push, Busch’s 2025 performance will be closely watched. Will he prove the doubters wrong, or will the advanced stats be a sign of trouble ahead?