For the past three years, the St. Louis Cardinals have shuffled left-hander Matthew Liberatore around like a suitcase in a busy airport.
Once considered one of baseball’s top starting pitching prospects in 2021, Liberatore has struggled to find a defined role with the Cardinals. He has alternated between starting, relieving, and spot-starting, which has contributed to his middling career numbers.
So far, Liberatore has posted a 4.99 career ERA over 182.1 innings. Out of his 91 appearances, only 24 have been starts, with his highest workload coming in 2024, when he threw 86 innings. While his overall stats don’t scream “rotation lock,” a deeper analysis suggests there’s untapped potential.
In 2022, Liberatore made nine appearances (seven starts), logging 34.2 innings with a 5.97 ERA. The following year, he pitched 61.2 innings across 22 appearances (11 starts), finishing with a 5.25 ERA. Last season, he worked primarily out of the bullpen, appearing in 60 games but starting just six times, posting a career-best 4.40 ERA over 86 innings.
Though he has found some success as a reliever, consistency appears to be the key to unlocking his full potential. When given a stable role and adequate preparation time, Liberatore has shown he can perform at a higher level.
Now, the Cardinals are giving him that opportunity in 2025.
“When you tell someone to work on something and they return as locked in as Libby, making the most of every opportunity, they’ve earned it,” said manager Oli Marmol. “I wanted him to enter St. Louis knowing he’s a starter—no back and forth. This isn’t just a trial run for a few starts. He’s going to start. No looking over his shoulder—just go be a starter, and we’ll evaluate as we go.”
Liberatore was stretched out as a starter during spring training and seized the opportunity. Over 16.2 innings, he allowed just three earned runs, good for a 1.62 ERA, while striking out nine. Though he technically started only one spring game, he ramped up to 71 pitches in his final outing on March 22.
While I initially believed Liberatore was best suited as a reliever—where he has found the most success in the majors—now is the time to see if he can realize his potential as a mid-rotation starter. If he does, his value to the team will be significantly higher both now and in the future.
Although Michael McGreevy arguably had a better spring, Marmol chose Liberatore for the rotation instead. Now in his third full MLB season, Liberatore’s window to prove himself as a legitimate starter is open. McGreevy, also a first-round pick, still has time to develop and will serve as a backup option should an injury arise in the rotation.
While Marmol and John Mozeliak (President of Baseball Operations) lead roster decisions, it’s possible that Chaim Bloom also had input. Bloom, set to replace Mozeliak after the 2025 season, will ultimately reap the rewards—or face the consequences—of the team’s decisions this year.
It’s also worth noting that Bloom originally drafted Liberatore in 2018 while serving as the Rays’ Senior VP of Baseball Operations. Some believe he may have pushed for Liberatore’s return to a starting role before officially taking over, a theory discussed by Bernie Miklasz and Katie Woo on a recent episode of Cardinal Territory.
With a strong spring performance securing his rotation spot, Liberatore now has a real shot to prove himself as a viable major league starter. If he takes full advantage, 2025 could be the year he finally fulfills his potential. I, for one, hope he does.