The New York Rangers have only five games left in the season, but who they will face in the first round of the Stanley Cup playoffs is as apparent as mud. Starting on Saturday, the Blueshirts might face seven, if not eight, clubs, giving the Buffalo Sabres a chance.
In the Metropolitan Division, where the Rangers only need four more points acquired or lost by the Carolina Hurricanes to secure first place, four clubs are vying for third place and a certain playoff spot.
The New York Islanders now hold the lead with 83 points, tied with the Philadelphia Flyers, who played one more game and are in the Eastern Conference’s second wild card place. Meanwhile, the Washington Capitals and Pittsburgh Penguins have 82 points apiece.
Whichever team finishes third, the runner-up will most certainly secure the last wild card, since the Detroit Red Wings (82 points) have gone 4-11-2 over their previous 17 games. While there is no such thing as an easy playoff opponent in today’s competitive NHL, there is one team the Rangers must avoid.
Rangers need to avoid Lightning in Round One
As the playoffs loom closer, the Tampa Bay Lightning are on fire. Since March 1st, they’ve maintained an impressive points percentage of .821, second only to the Dallas Stars at .857.
Admittedly, the Rangers and Hurricanes have also been strong contenders, tied with the most points (25) during that period, each playing 17 games with identical records of 12-4-1. From the Lightning’s perspective, they’d likely aim to steer clear of facing the Rangers in the first round too.
For the Rangers to avoid a first-round clash with Tampa, winning the Metropolitan Division isn’t a surefire solution because either the Lightning or the high-scoring Toronto Maple Leafs will secure the first wild card spot. To bypass facing either of these formidable opponents, New York needs to outpace the Boston Bruins to clinch the Eastern Conference and confront the second wild card winner.
Presently, the Rangers hold a three-point advantage over the Bruins (108 to 105) with an equal number of games played. Nevertheless, this lead could diminish swiftly if the Rangers endure consecutive losses. Yet, they haven’t faced two straight regulation losses since late January (1/18 @Vegas and 1/20 @LA), showing no signs of faltering.
At this juncture, you might wonder why all the fuss? Well, it’s the playoffs, and to vie for the Stanley Cup, you must defeat whichever team stands in your path.
Here’s why the Rangers seek to avoid the Lightning. At the season’s outset, many pundits dismissed Tampa Bay as too aged and deemed their Stanley Cup window almost shut. Initially, they seemed to validate these doubts, starting the season with a mediocre 10-10-5 record.
However, this fueled their determination, prompting Tampa’s top players to elevate their performance. While many focus on stars like Connor McDavid (128 points) and Nathan MacKinnon (131 points), it’s Nikita Kucherov (133 points) leading the NHL in scoring.
“Closing window?” Bruins GM Don Sweeney exclaimed to the Athletic. “That’s perilous talk for anyone facing that group!”
In their last encounter with the Lightning, the Rangers were dominated by Kucherov and Brayden Point, suffering a 6-3 defeat. Despite holding a winning record in the season series (2-1-0), the Lightning remain an opponent a Cup contender hopes to avoid in the opening round.
Lastly, last season’s fate of the Maple Leafs serves as a cautionary tale. Toronto, finishing second in the Atlantic Division with 111 points, faced Tampa, who ended with 98 points, similar to their expected finish this season. It took Toronto six arduous games, including three in overtime, to eliminate the Lightning.
Toronto subsequently fell to the Florida Panthers in five games in the second round. While the Panthers advanced to the Stanley Cup Final, they were ousted in five games by the Vegas Golden Knights, who swept the Winnipeg Jets in the playoffs’ opening round.
While no one can foresee the future, starting the playoffs against Tampa is inadvisable. They’re a team that grinds down opponents relentlessly, leaving them drained even in victory.
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