After a frustratingly quiet offseason, it seemed the St. Louis Cardinals had finally accepted that Nolan Arenado would begin the 2025 season as their starting third baseman. While that wouldn’t typically be a bad thing, it became an issue for a team looking to get younger, free up financial flexibility, and provide opportunities for emerging talent—all key reasons they initially sought to trade him.
Despite John Mozeliak’s well-documented efforts, a trade never materialized throughout the winter. Arenado, armed with a full no-trade clause, significantly limited his potential destinations and even rejected a deal to a team on his approved list. Mozeliak grew frustrated with Arenado’s unwillingness to budge, while Arenado resented being portrayed as the obstacle in the Cardinals’ sudden rebuild. With no resolution in sight, both sides appeared poised to endure the situation at least until the trade deadline.
Then, everything shifted. Though Arenado publicly expressed his commitment to helping the Cardinals compete in 2025, it became clear he wasn’t eager to endure another season of speculation about his future. According to an MLB.com report on Saturday, he has now reconsidered his stance on a trade to the Houston Astros—the same team he previously rejected in December. This unexpected change of heart is likely leaving Mozeliak both relieved and exasperated.
To be fair to Arenado, he rightfully earned his no-trade clause and had every right to exercise it. When he initially approved Houston as a destination, the team still had Kyle Tucker, Alex Bregman, and Justin Verlander. After those key departures, he understandably reevaluated whether the Astros were still a viable fit.
However, his reversal highlights a lack of foresight. Per the MLB.com report, Arenado is now open to Houston due to their recent signing of Christian Walker at first base—an acquisition that signals their intent to remain competitive. While that move certainly bolsters the Astros, the reality is that they were already a strong but flawed team in December, and not much has changed besides Arenado’s own circumstances.
It seems Arenado initially assumed that one of the major teams he preferred—the Dodgers, Padres, Yankees, Mets, or Red Sox—would aggressively pursue him. When that didn’t happen, he was left in limbo. The Dodgers and Mets already have third basemen, the Padres and Yankees lack financial flexibility, and the Red Sox were more focused on Alex Bregman. Meanwhile, Mozeliak always understood what Arenado is only now coming to terms with: Houston was the only real contender with both the financial means and roster flexibility to make a trade work. Fortunately for the Cardinals, it’s better late than never.