The last time the Detroit Lions met the Buffalo Bills at Ford (, Josh Allen led a four-play, 48-yard drive that resulted in a Tyler Bass game-winning 45-yard ( goal, giving the Bills a 28-25 Thanksgiving victory in 2022.
That setback halted a three-game winning streak for the Lions, who had rallied from a 1-6 start to the season. It also helped Detroit just miss the playoffs, finishing with a 9-8 record.
When the two teams face off again on Sunday for the first time since that game, NFL analysts expect a different conclusion. Earlier this week, three prominent bookies had the Lions as small favorites.
Experts point to Detroit’s powerful offense and a struggling Bills defense as primary reasons for the Lions’ advantage heading into the Week 15 matchup in Motown. The Lions will also resume a more normal schedule after a hard string of games, and several key players are anticipated to return to the lineup.
Buffalo has also encountered struggles on the road this season, with a 4-3 record. Meanwhile, Ford Field soon established itself as one of the NFL’s most challenging grounds for visiting teams.
Here’s what experts are saying ahead of Sunday’s pivotal matchup:
MLive
Benjamin Raven’s pick:
“Lions 31, Bills 23— I learnt my lesson about doubting these Lions last week. And I’m not going to do it after a few more days of recuperation. They should be healthier and ready to go in this showdown between the NFL’s top two scoring teams.”
The Athletic
Pick: Bills
“This game will not be as high-scoring as the Bills’ loss to the Rams last week, for a variety of reasons, including the fact that the Bills aren’t particularly strong at stopping the run, and the Lions’ combination of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery is the league’s second-best. The Bills had no answer for Rams receivers Puka Nacua or Cooper Kupp, but we will credit some of that to looking past the Rams to this game.
The Lions will need to score at least 30 points since Josh Allen is playing at MVP level and the Lions defense is still shaky (new guys Za’Darius Smith and Al-Quadin Muhammad are under pressure, too). We’re going with the hot QB, especially in the red zone — Allen has passed for 16 touchdowns and ran for eight, and the Bills score from inside the 20-yard line 68.6 percent of the time (10 for 11 the last three games).
Sporting News
Pick: Lions
“Josh Allen has been the best individual player in the NFL, leading his club. Jared Goff has been the best team player in the NFL, aided by tremendous support. Allen can try to take over another game, but the Buffalo defense will struggle as Detroit uses the rushing approach to open up favorable downfield passes for Goff. Allen may need to operate one-dimensionally again, setting up a similar outcome for the Bills as Week 14 against the Rams.”
CBS Sports
Pick: Lions
“The Bills defense struggled to stop the Ravens and Rams — two teams with explosive offenses — and I believe they will struggle to stop the Lions. If Josh Allen can deliver another six-touchdown game on Sunday, I believe the Bills will win, but he cannot do so two weeks in a row. Right? RIGHT?!?”
Pro Football Network
Pick: Lions
“The analytics show that the Detroit Lions are the better team overall, with the Buffalo Bills behind them by some distance on defense and special teams. The Lions have also had a little more difficult schedule.
This game has the potential to be very high-scoring, making the line difficult to predict. These exciting back-and-forth games are frequently won on the final possession, so any line less than seven points is difficult to play.”
Arizona Republic
Pick: Lions
“We really wanted to pick the Bills in this game, but the Lions have won 11 straight, and Buffalo is only 4-3 away from Highmark Stadium this season. Josh Allen will continue to impress, but the Lions will win in a thriller.”
NBC Sports (Pro Football Talk)
Pick: Lions
“Buffalo’s defense won’t be able to slow down Detroit’s offense.”
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