Mariners top star just completed his best season yet, with a 3.23 ERA and impressive strikeout and walk rates over a Major League-high 208 2/3 innings. Since debuting in 2021, the former 14th overall pick has met expectations and established himself in the Mariners’ rotation. However, he’s not necessarily guaranteed a long-term future with Seattle. According to Adam Jude of the Seattle Times, there has been minimal discussion about a contract extension, with no imminent agreement in sight.
There’s no immediate cause for concern, though, as Gilbert is only entering his second year of arbitration eligibility and remains under team control through 2027 as a Super Two player. The Mariners and Gilbert avoided arbitration last winter with a $4.05M deal for 2024, and he’s projected to earn $8.1M in 2025 due to his outstanding performance this season.
If Gilbert continues to excel, his arbitration salaries will rise, but Seattle would still benefit from a relatively affordable ace. Locking in an extension before Opening Day would offer financial stability through his arbitration years and beyond, potentially saving the Mariners money if Gilbert continues to improve.
In 2024, Gilbert achieved career highs with a 27.4% strikeout rate, a 31.7% whiff rate, and his best hard-hit rate at 39.3%, which, while only in the 44th percentile, was a significant improvement over past seasons.
Seattle’s rotation is perhaps the best and most cost-effective in baseball. While Luis Castillo holds a substantial five-year, $108M contract, Gilbert, George Kirby, Bryan Woo, and Bryce Miller are all under team control. The abundance of young, affordable talent allows the Mariners flexibility in handling extension talks, as they aren’t pressured to rush into a deal with Gilbert. They can evaluate which pitchers have the potential to be long-term fixtures, and younger players like Woo or Miller might offer more cost-effective extension opportunities.
If the Mariners do not see some starters as part of their future plans, they could explore trades, particularly if they receive an offer involving a talented young hitter under team control, which would address Seattle’s need for offense. Jude’s article emphasizes that President of Baseball Operations Jerry Dipoto isn’t currently inclined to trade from their rotation, but his stance could change with the right offer.
While Gilbert’s rising salary might not make him the most likely trade candidate, one NL scout suggested that Miller might be a logical option, despite his home/away splits, which may make other teams wary of his reliance on Seattle’s pitcher-friendly ballpark. Castillo, given his contract and age, is reportedly the least likely to be moved.
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