The Houston Astros appear to have accepted that re-signing franchise third baseman Alex Bregman is unlikely. To prepare for his departure, they recently traded Kyle Tucker to the Chicago Cubs in exchange for corner infielder Isaac Paredes. While Paredes could fill in at first base, the Astros might pursue another major trade to acquire a new third baseman.
One potential target is St. Louis Cardinals star Nolan Arenado, who the Cardinals are actively looking to move. Arenado has $52 million remaining on his contract, and St. Louis is reportedly willing to cover a significant portion of that to facilitate a trade. However, Arenado holds a no-trade clause, and the Astros are not currently among the six teams he’d waive it for. If Arenado expands his list—which seems increasingly possible—a blockbuster trade could bring him to Houston.
Here’s a proposed deal:
Houston Astros receive:
- 3B Nolan Arenado
- $20 million
St. Louis Cardinals receive:
- RHP A.J. Blubaugh (Astros’ No. 10 prospect)
- RHP Rhett Kouba (Astros’ No. 25 prospect)
The key hurdle in this scenario is convincing Arenado to approve a trade to Houston. Given the Cardinals’ urgency to offload his contract, Arenado might reconsider his stance as the offseason progresses. This deal would allow the Astros to replace Bregman with Arenado while saving a substantial amount of money. With the Cardinals covering $20 million of Arenado’s contract, Houston would pay roughly 60% of his remaining deal and avoid a $200 million extension for Bregman. In return, the Cardinals shed $32 million in salary and acquire two pitching prospects.
Blubaugh, 24, has significant upside after a solid 2024 season, while Kouba—despite a disappointing 2024 campaign—showed strong potential earlier in his career. A fresh start could help Kouba rebound, making him a valuable buy-low addition for St. Louis.
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