There have been offseason rumors and discussions about a potential trade involving Nolan Arenado moving to the Phillies, which would likely require the Phillies to trade Alec Bohm. However, since the Cardinals don’t have a clear need for Bohm, it seems plausible that a third team would need to be involved to facilitate such a deal.
Let me clarify that this is purely a hypothetical scenario. I’m not convinced this trade will actually happen. While there’s buzz about the Phillies wanting to move Bohm, I don’t see a strong rationale for it. Bohm is relatively affordable, likely at least an average player, and trading for Arenado feels like a lateral move. When something seems illogical, I tend to adopt a “wait and see” stance.
Still, speculation is part of the offseason, so let’s explore the possibilities.
Identifying a Third Team
For this trade to work, we’d need a third team that both makes sense and has the right assets. Teams with an established third baseman projected at or above 2 WAR (and who had a similar season last year) are unlikely candidates: Orioles, Red Sox, Guardians, Astros, Mariners, Diamondbacks, Braves, Dodgers, Padres, and Giants.
Some of these teams, like the Red Sox and Astros, have configurations that make an Arenado trade unlikely. For example, moving Rafael Devers to first base would displace Masataka Yoshida or Triston Casas, both strong hitters. The Dodgers and Padres are also logistically constrained.
On the other hand, teams in rebuild mode or who aren’t prioritizing a near-term third baseman, like the White Sox, Angels, or Nationals, don’t fit either. NL Central teams are also improbable participants, given interdivisional dynamics and roster considerations.
“Cheap” teams like the Royals, Rays, and Marlins are unlikely, as are teams with MLB-ready third base talent or strong prospects in the pipeline, like the Tigers (Jace Jung), Twins (Royce Lewis), Rangers (Josh Jung), Rockies (Ryan McMahon), and Blue Jays (Clement). This leaves three potential partners: the Athletics, Yankees, and Mets.
Each of these teams has some hurdles. For instance, the Athletics may not want to part with their limited future talent for a short-term solution like Bohm. The Mets have a logjam of infield prospects, including Brett Baty, Ronny Mauricio, and Luisangel Acuña. The Yankees, meanwhile, would need to find the right balance of assets to part with.
Why Would the Phillies Do This?
For the Phillies to consider this trade, there must be a compelling reason, such as acquiring Ryan Helsley. Without a clear need or upside, it’s hard to see why they’d engage in a complex three-team trade instead of pursuing Arenado directly.
Hypothetical Trade Scenarios
Athletics
- Athletics receive: Alec Bohm, Nick Castellanos, Raniel Rodriguez
- Phillies receive: Nolan Arenado
- Cardinals receive: Griffin Burkholder (PTBNL)
Adding Nick Castellanos to the trade aligns the value better, as his contract could be viewed as a liability the Phillies want to offload. The Cardinals could receive a lower-level prospect from the Athletics to make the deal worthwhile.
Mets
- Mets receive: Alec Bohm
- Phillies receive: Nolan Arenado, Nolan McLean, Ryan Helsley
- Cardinals receive: Justin Crawford
The Mets’ abundance of infield prospects makes this configuration challenging, as they could more easily trade directly for Bohm without involving Arenado. Additionally, the Mets may prefer to see how their internal options develop before acquiring Bohm.
Yankees
- Yankees receive: Alec Bohm, JoJo Romero
- Phillies receive: Nolan Arenado, Ryan Helsley, Rafael Flores
- Cardinals receive: Will Warren, Everson Pereira, Cade Smith
This scenario gives the Yankees some immediate help at third base while clearing up positional redundancies. The Cardinals would receive fair value for Arenado and Helsley, while the Phillies add Arenado and bullpen support.
Final Thoughts
Despite the exercise, I remain unconvinced that a three-team trade involving Bohm and Arenado will materialize. The logistical and value-related hurdles are significant, and none of the hypothetical scenarios fully resolve the challenges. Speculation is fun, but I’ll believe it when I see it.
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