With the Cardinals looking to transition to a younger core next season, several players have emerged as logical trade candidates, with Ryan Helsley being one of the most notable. The hard-throwing closer, who is one year from free agency, has been one of the best relievers in baseball and would certainly attract significant attention on the trade market.
However, according to Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic, teams in contact with the Cardinals expect the team to hold onto Helsley into next season. Cardinals President of Baseball Operations John Mozeliak supported this stance, stating that while the team remains “open-minded” to a trade, their plan is for Helsley to stay with the organization. Derrick Goold of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch echoed this sentiment, reporting that the Cardinals are inclined to keep Helsley unless an overwhelming offer comes their way.
While this isn’t a definitive statement like the Oakland A’s GM’s flat refusal to trade Brent Rooker, it does signal that the Cardinals are leaning toward keeping Helsley for now.
Helsley has been dominant over the past three seasons. He broke out in 2022 with a 1.25 ERA over 64 2/3 innings. Though a forearm strain limited him in 2023, he still posted a solid 2.45 ERA in 36 2/3 innings. This year, he had a career-best 2.04 ERA in 66 1/3 innings, earning 49 saves, leading the majors, and finishing 62 games, a National League best. Helsley struck out nearly 30% of batters faced with a manageable 8.6% walk rate. Since 2022, he has a 1.83 ERA and a 34.6% strikeout rate across 167 2/3 innings.
Given this level of production and his triple-digit fastball and dominant slider, Helsley would arguably be the best reliever on the trade market, rivaling Milwaukee’s Devin Williams. Helsley is projected to make $6.9 million through arbitration in 2024, which is below market value for an elite closer.
Trading Helsley would make sense for the Cardinals, especially considering they could get significant interest at next summer’s trade deadline. However, if they trade him in the offseason, the acquiring team could make a qualifying offer after the season, which would not be possible if they traded him mid-season. While qualifying offers for relievers are rare, the possibility could be appealing to some teams now, but not later in the season.
The Cardinals could also decide to keep Helsley and potentially offer him a qualifying offer themselves if they don’t trade him. Meanwhile, other trade rumors around the team include Nolan Arenado, though there’s little expectation that players with no-trade clauses like Willson Contreras and Sonny Gray will be dealt. The team might hold onto most of its roster from 2023, including key players like Paul Goldschmidt, and could focus on internal improvements or a few offseason moves. While winning the division might be a stretch, the Cardinals are likely to see how the first months of the season play out before making major changes.
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