On Saturday afternoon at 12:30, the 7-0 Oregon Ducks will host #20 Illinois in Autzen Stadium for their fifth Big Ten matchup, airing on CBS. The Illini come in as a well-coached, physical team with a mobile and accurate quarterback in Luke Altmeyer, but the Ducks are expected to win by 17 points. Oregon, favored by 21.5 points at home, has the advantage of an extra day of rest. Illinois will also be missing its top running back, Kaden Feagin, who is out for the season due to hip surgery. The Illini’s defensive ends, weighing 270 pounds each, will be challenged by the Ducks’ offensive line, including Marcus Harper II, Ajani Cornelius, Iapani Laloulu, Nishad Strother, and Josh Conerly.
The main reasons this game won’t be close are Oregon’s pressure and pass defense. While Altmeyer is a capable quarterback who can throw accurately and use his legs to extend plays, his offensive line has given up 20 sacks this season. This is concerning against a Ducks defense that’s gaining momentum, having recently edged Ohio State and shut out Purdue on the road. Derrick Harmon leads all defensive tackles nationally with 32 pressures, while Matayo Uiagalelei has 5.5 sacks, ranking 12th in the FBS. Oregon’s defense has 20 sacks as a team, with contributions from Harmon and Teitum Tuioti. The Ducks’ ability to generate pressure forces hurried throws and difficult decisions, and their defenders are quick to close in when Altmeyer is forced out of the pocket.
Compounding Altmeyer’s challenge is Oregon’s stingy secondary, which excels at tackling and limiting yards after the catch. The Ducks rank 9th nationally in pass breakups, with Jabbar Muhammad leading the way with seven. They allow just 175 passing yards per game, 16th in the FBS, and have given up only four passing touchdowns against five interceptions. Oregon will approach this game with the same methodical focus they’ve maintained all season.
With a 7-0 start and a #1 national ranking, the home crowd will be energized, and sunny, mild weather is expected in Eugene. Without his 6’3″, 250-pound running back to help alleviate the pressure, Altmeyer is in for a tough day. While Oregon might not cover the spread, they should still control the game and execute their strategy. This game represents another step toward finishing the season strong and entering the postseason as a balanced, healthy, and improving team, especially with Traeshon Holden returning to boost the Ducks’ talented receiving corps.
Prediction: Oregon 38, Illinois 21.
Oregon Ducks DB Jabbar Muhammad mid-season college football highlights. 🦆 pic.twitter.com/4OmaDNzajD
— College Football Alerts (@CFBAlerts_) October 23, 2024
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