Developing pitching prospects has not been a strong point for the Mike Elias-led organization, making it particularly disappointing when a once-promising player seems to stall in the minors. This appears to be the case with young star in 2024, as the right-hander struggled to adapt during his first full season in Triple-A.
He joined the Orioles with minimal hype. Drafted in the 12th round out of New Mexico in 2021, this tall right-handed pitcher seemed like a typical Elias project—a prospect who might not possess the highest ceiling but had the potential to exceed early expectations.
In his initial full professional season, He reached Double-A Bowie, where he recorded a 3.69 ERA over 63.1 innings with the Baysox. His start to the 2023 season was even more promising, posting a 2.47 ERA in 12 additional starts at Double-A. This performance earned him a promotion to Triple-A, where he made 13 more starts to finish the 2023 season.
Justin Armbruester's night is over, and he finishes with his third quality start of the year AND has reached 100 strikeouts️🔥️🔥
6.0 IP, 5 H, 2 ER, 7 SO#DefendtheHarbor pic.twitter.com/YjqliuVBzr
— Norfolk Tides (@NorfolkTides) August 10, 2024
Despite not achieving the best results during his first stint in Triple-A, Armbruester began the 2024 season with the Tides, joining other top pitching prospects like Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott. While it was a long shot, many believed he could perform well enough in 2024 to make his major league debut.
However, the 25-year-old faced a difficult start right from his first outing. In his 2024 debut, the Charlotte Knights scored seven runs on him from seven hits, forcing him out after just 2.2 innings. This set a disappointing tone for the month, as the Orioles prospect finished April with an 8.38 ERA over 19.1 innings, despite striking out 25 batters. He did end the month positively, tossing four shutout innings and striking out six against the Stripers.
Armbruester struggled to maintain that momentum in May, starting the month poorly by giving up six runs without recording an out. This difficult beginning contributed to another rough month, as he ended May with a 10.31 ERA over 18.1 innings, although he did accumulate 21 strikeouts and had three starts where he struck out at least as many batters as innings pitched.
June didn’t yield stellar results for Armbruester, but it showed improvement from his rocky start. He lowered his ERA to 7.07 for the month, finishing with his best start of the season, pitching six shutout innings against Charlotte while allowing just four hits and striking out five.
That strong finish to June propelled him into his best month of the season in July. In four starts surrounding the All-Star break, Armbruester recorded a 2.08 ERA over 17.1 innings, striking out 20 and holding opponents to a .206 batting average. July also included his finest performance, where he shut out the Memphis Redbirds for six innings, allowing only three hits and racking up ten strikeouts.
Despite these ups and downs, 2024 proved frustrating for Armbruester. He had moments where he looked like a future major league starter, such as his standout game against Memphis and another solid outing against Durham, where he limited the Bulls to three runs while striking out seven. He set a season high for strikeouts at the end of August, striking out 12 Jacksonville Jumbo Shrimp in his fourth quality start of the year.
Despite some impressive performances, Armbruester also had far too many poor outings in 2024. He recorded six starts where he pitched fewer than three innings while allowing more than six runs, with three of those disastrous outings occurring in August. His worst start came against Gwinnett, where he surrendered nine runs in just 2.1 innings during a lopsided defeat. Although he managed two quality starts that month, he ultimately finished August with a 12.46 ERA and allowed a .320 batting average against.
The Seattle-area native rebounded slightly in September, achieving his second-best month of the season. He lowered his ERA to 5.21 and his opponent batting average to .233, but his strikeout numbers suffered, as he recorded just 16 strikeouts over 19 innings.
Much of Armbruester’s struggles throughout the season stemmed from a lack of control. In his first two full seasons in the minors, he averaged 3.2 walks per nine innings, but that rate skyrocketed to 5.2 BB/9 this past season with Norfolk.
Fangraphs noted in their midseason evaluation of Armbruester that his “strike-throwing issues” and difficulties in “locating” pitches highlighted a control problem that not only impacted his 2024 season but also limited his potential as a prospect. While his fastball typically sits in the lower 90s and can reach 96 mph, along with two reliable secondary pitches—a cutter and a slider—his concerning lack of command suggests that his best role in the majors might be as a reliever, similar to Mike Baumann.
With Cade Povich and Chayce McDermott firmly ahead of him on the organizational depth chart, Armbruester appears likely to start 2025 in a similar position as he began 2024. He will receive an invitation to spring training, but unless he impresses in Sarasota, he is expected to return to Norfolk to kick off the next season. Currently outside the Orioles’ Top 30 prospects, Armbruester may be on a path to becoming a career Triple-A pitcher without finding a role in Baltimore.
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