When it comes to gearing up for the playoffs, teams like the Los Angeles Dodgers, San Francisco Giants, and Texas Rangers are among those who rely heavily on modern medical advances. Tommy John surgery has become so routine that it’s easy to assume players will return as good as new.
How often have you heard someone say that when a player comes back, it’s like making a blockbuster trade for an impact pitcher? The reality, however, is that every UCL tear, surgery, and recovery is unique.
The Dodgers expected that by now, Walker Buehler (24 months post-surgery) would be in peak playoff form (along with Dustin May and Tony Gonsolin, which also hasn’t materialized). The Giants hoped Robbie Ray (15 months post-surgery) would lead a strong second-half push. The Rangers were counting on Tyler Mahle (15 months) and Jacob deGrom (14 months) to drive them down the stretch.
None of this has panned out. The Dodgers are still uncertain about their postseason rotation. The Giants remain under .500 with a 25–36 record against winning teams. The Rangers, meanwhile, have nearly played themselves out of contention while waiting for their reinforcements.
Though the surgery is more common—perhaps too common—the recovery process remains fraught with setbacks and extended timelines. No matter how impressive a pitcher looks in bullpens and simulated games (which is all you usually hear about), returning to real games with high stakes and external pressure is a different challenge altogether.
On Wednesday, both Buehler (3 1/3 innings) and Ray (2/3 of an inning) struggled in short starts, resulting in losses for their teams. This highlights how, despite small sample sizes, it’s clear that getting back to full form takes much longer than just getting back on the mound.
Walker Buehler, Dodgers (5.58 ERA in 9 starts)
His three-part delivery places a greater emphasis on timing and body speed than most pitchers’. Buehler’s delivery has yet to feel completely natural. This has caused command difficulties. His pitches have an unusually wide spray spread.
It’s about more than just command. Buehler’s pitches aren’t as crisp. Lefthanded hitters are sluggers.612 against him, with.667 against his fastball. Over the last six years, one of the best pitchers in the game at putting hitters away has struggled to finish them off.
It’s not a question of velocity. More interesting, his four-seamer (-193), cutter (-170), sinker (-192), knuckle curveball (-269), and slider (-98) all have significantly lower spin rates.
Robbie Ray (6.00 ERA in 5 starts)
Ray’s swing-and-miss ability remains (32.6%, near to his career high), but he has given up too many free baserunners (16 walks and hit batters in 21 innings), and his small-sample flyball rate (career high 40%) has resulted in a greater home run percentage (6.5%).
Ray’s mechanics have been tweaked—and occasionally completely overhauled—during his career, making it difficult to measure. He went through a short-arm period, for example, but then abandoned it. When he won the Cy Young Award in 2021, he stood with his shoulders square to the plate before taking the mound. This year, he stands sideways before beginning his windup.
But the most significant change for Ray this year is that he is throwing with the least amount of extension since 2019. Ray’s four-seam velocity is half a tick lower than it was in 2021. However, when you include in his loss of extension, his fastball to a hitter appears to be 0.7 mph slower.
Here are the release positions of two Ray fastballs, three years apart.
During his Cy Young season, his release point was slightly lower by more than four inches. Part of this is due to pure arm angle. This year, his arm is straighter. The higher release point causes the head and torso to tilt right, allowing the shoulder and arm to move through the higher slot.
There is a greater tilt in the shoulders.
Furthermore, the higher slot results from less extension. Ray isn’t getting as far down the mound as he did in 2021, therefore he’s slightly more upright.
All of these minor changes are reflected in the metrics: less extension with a higher release and a greater drop in perceived velocity vs actual velocity.
Giants manager Bob Melvin had to withdraw Ray on Wednesday after he threw 39 pitches and was still in the first inning. “Coming off a long time off,” Melvin told reporters, “you’ll have some tough ones.”
Shane Baz, Rays (4.21 ERA in 7 starts)
Twenty-three months after Tommy John surgery, his strikeout rate is decreased while his walk rate has increased. He’s throwing his fastball more, but the way it’s barreled up suggests a command problem. Batters are hitting.375 while slugging.562 off his heater, but.177 and.266 off his secondary pitches.
Jacob deGrom, Rangers (has not pitched)
After throwing 40 pitches of live batting practice on Sunday and reaching 99 mph, deGrom appears to be ready to make one or two minor league rehab starts. That would put him on track to begin around August 28, 14 1/2 months after his Tommy John surgery.
Luis Garcia, Astros (has not pitched)
Garcia has been sidelined from his rehab work twice due to elbow pain, which was fixed 15 months ago. Garcia may be running out of time to build up the arm strength to resume throwing, as there is no schedule for doing so.
Tyler Mahle, Rangers (2.79 ERA in 2 starts)
The fastball’s velocity has dropped slightly (93.2 to 92.1), but its movement qualities remain good. In his two starts, he has only pitched five and four-and-a-thirds innings.
Max Meyer, Marlins (5.20 ERA in 7 starts)
Meyer got Tommy John surgery in August 2022. After missing last season, he has been subject to severe innings limits enforced by Miami this season. Meyer has pitched 94 1/3 innings in 22 starts between the majors and minors, an average of 4 1/3 innings per start. His fastball is down a half-tick. At age 25, he has never thrown more than 92 pitches in a professional game.
Jeffrey Springs, Rays (4.61 ERA in 3 starts)
Springs, who had Tommy John surgery 15 months ago, threw a no-walk, eight-strikeout gem Sunday. His velocity (90.3) hasn’t returned to where it was last year (91.7), but his changeup looks dangerous.
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