The NBA had its annual draft this week, and as expected, no Red Raiders were taken. However, things could change in 2025, as new transfer JT Toppin is expected to be a first-round choice next year.
According to CBSSports.com, Toppin is projected to go in the first round of the NBA Draft. In their early 2025 mock draft, the former New Mexico Lobo ranks No. 18.
“JT Toppin took the Mountain West by storm as a freshman and is moving on to prove himself at Texas Tech,” according to their report. “He’s a 6’9 forward with length and athleticism. He excels as a rebounder and defender while also developing an offensive game.”
Toppin performed admirably as a true freshman in Albuquerque last season. With an average of 12.4 points and 9.1 rebounds per game, the Dallas, Texas native made quite an impression in the Mountain West, garnering Freshman of the Year accolades.
In addition, he shined at the NBA Draft Combine this spring, scoring 11 points and grabbing 10 rebounds in one scrimmage. That sparked speculation that he could make his way into the first round of next year’s draft.
Of course, Toppin’s draft status complicates things for Texas Tech. With three years of eligibility remaining, the Red Raiders would love to have him for his whole college career.
However, if Toppin gets drafted by the NBA next year, the Red Raiders will only have him for one year. That would not be ideal.
On the other hand, if Toppin makes it into the first round of the 2025 draft, it would indicate that he performed exceptionally well for Tech in 2024-25. If Toppin flourishes and becomes an NBA lottery pick next year, Tech will have gotten the most out of him during his one season in Lubbock.
NBA teams are already impressed with his huge wingspan, quickness, rebounding and blocking abilities, and transition game. He still has work to do if he wants to be a first-round pick next summer (remember that rookie contracts are only guaranteed for first-round picks).
Toppin needs to improve at the foul line, where he shot only 56% as a rookie. He must also improve his defense away from the basket (which Texas Tech head coach Grant McCasland can undoubtedly assist him with given McCasland’s defensive background).
If Toppin can increase his 34.4% 3-point shooting percentage, it will boost his NBA prospects. That’s because, at 6-foot-7, he’ll need to show NBA teams that he can both score from the outside and finish around the rim.
Texas Tech has not had a player selected in the NBA Draft since Jahmi’us Ramsey was taken in the second round by the Sacramento Kings in 2020. Furthermore, since 2004, the program has only produced three draft picks: Ramsey, Jarrett Culver (2019), and Zhaire Smith (2018).
That tendency must change if this team is to advance and become a consistent national competitor. Tech had a first-round pick on the roster for each of its two most successful seasons in program history, 2017-18 and 2018-19, and it paid off handsomely.
Next season, the Red Raiders could have another first-round pick in Toppin. If he can improve his game and increase his productivity as a sophomore, he has the potential to be a guy that everyone is talking about in a year.
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