For the past three years, baseball has had a clear No. 1 free agent whose expected deal has dominated discussions about the sport for months.
First, Aaron Judge was in the midst of a 62-home run season. Then there was Shohei Ohtani, who pitched and batted his way into an unparalleled free agent frenzy.
Now it is Juan Soto’s time.
The slugger, who returned to the New York Yankees’ lineup Monday night after missing three games due to forearm irritation, is having a breakout year in his debut season in the Bronx. He won’t be 26 until October, so his contract has lots of room for extension.
And his agent is Scott Boras, who is about to negotiate the largest contract of his career, coming off a season in which many of his clients opted for shorter-term deals.
So we have one of the best hitters in the game (if not the best), now playing for the most recognizable team in the sport, entering his prime years, and the discussions are being led by MLB’s most prominent agent. Add it all together, and baseball is in for another winter with a potentially record-breaking deal.
How much will Soto receive? What record will he strive for in his contract? Which teams have the best chances of signing him? We polled 28 MLB executives, agents, and insiders to determine what Soto’s deal will look like this winter.
How much could Soto get?
Here are the 28 replies from our panel, organized by total money.
Under $400 million (3): 1 year/$50 million, 8 years/$296 million, 10 years/$350 million
$400-$499 million (8): 10 years/$400 million, 10 years/$450 million, 11 years/$450 million, 12 years/$450 million, 13 years/$470 million, 12 years/$480 million (3x)
$500-599 million (14): 12 years/$500 million (2x), 13 years/$500 million (2x), 14 years/$500 million, 15 years/$500 million, 13 years/$502 million, 12 years/$510 million, 12 years/$525 million, 12 years/$528 million, 13 years/$540 million, 12 years/$550 million, 12 years/$552 million, 14 years/$588 million
At least $600 million (3): 14 years/$600 million, 12 years/$605 million, 10 years/$655 million
The average of all 28 estimates is 11.6 years and $482.5 million, resulting in an average yearly value of $41.4 million. Our estimates contain four high outliers and four low outliers, so removing them and averaging the middle 20 may provide a more accurate snapshot:
Years: 12.4
Total guarantee: $498.4 million
AAV: $40.4 million
The median prediction for those transactions is 13 years and $500 million, which aligns with the current industry consensus on expectations for this contract.
Half of the respondents predicted a figure between $500 million and $599 million, with another three exceeding $600 million in their forecasts. This indicates that 61% (17 of 28 respondents) believe Soto will receive at least half a billion dollars from a team this winter. That would be a record for current-day worth: Ohtani’s 10-year contract with the Los Angeles Dodgers featured so much deferred money that the net present value was $460 million.
(The clearest outlier of all our estimates — but genuine — was a one-year, $50 million projection made by someone in the sport in response to Boras’ perceived underperformance last winter and predicting it will happen again.)
The most popular comments was that for the contract to be considered a success in the business, it must outperform Judge’s $40 million average annual value. Most insiders also predict Boras will also try to beat Ohtani’s deferral-adjusted AAV of little over $46 million (which is the official MLB figure utilized for competitive balance tax purposes). Another goal is to surpass the $460 million amount, with $500 million in guarantees being a popular estimate.
With five months until Soto’s free agency begins, this range of forecasts is a good place to start learning about how teams will evaluate the Yankees slugger during the offseason — and the factors that will eventually influence the terms of his megadeal.
Who are the closest comps?
Finding similar free agents from recent seasons is common practice in the industry, but there aren’t many players who can compete with Soto’s performance since entering the majors as a 19-year-old in 2018.
Only Ohtani’s deal with the Dodgers (unique for many reasons) and Mike Trout’s 12-year, $426.5 million extension with the Los Angeles Angels (with no other potential suitors) clearly outperform the recent run of $300 million-plus contracts signed by Judge, Corey Seager, Gerrit Cole, and Yoshinobu Yamamoto — but Soto should easily outperform those latter deals.
Two players stand out as a roadmap for Soto’s free agency. In the 2018-19 winter, two great position players entered free agency with excellent resumes at a very young age:
Bryce Harper (a Boras client) and Manny Machado. Here’s how Soto compares to those two superstars at the same stage of their careers.
| PLAYER | AGE* | POSITION | CAREER WAR | FA CONTRACT |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Juan Soto | 26 years, 5 months | RF | 32.2** | TBD |
| Manny Machado | 26 years, 9 months | SS/3B | 29.8 | 10 yrs, $300 million*** |
| Bryce Harper | 26 years, 5 months | RF | 28.7 | 13 yrs, $330 million |
| * On their first Opening Day under the free agent contract | ||||
| ** Projections have him adding another 4ish WAR in 2024 | ||||
| *** Machado opted out after Year 5, signing a new 11-yr, $350 million deal | ||||
These two players are by far the best comparisons for Soto, demonstrating that teams have been willing to commit to long-term contracts with a high average annual value (AAV) for superstar position players, particularly when they reach free agency at a young age.
However, there are two challenges with these comparisons: Soto has already outperformed both Harper and Machado by a significant margin, and these contracts were signed over five years ago.
In an interview for this story, Boras highlighted the difficulty of using these deals as benchmarks in a record revenue market. By “them,” he refers to “centurion” players, a term he uses to describe Soto as a player who will rank among the top 100 in baseball history.
What are the biggest market variables?
One could make some basic tweaks, such as scaling the Machado and Harper deals according to league income since 2019, as well as accounting for the lifetime WAR disparity, but that is not how the market works. Instead, it may be more useful to investigate contemporary market conditions and the principals’ psyche.
While it is doubtful that Soto’s free agency will unfold in the same way as Blake Snell or Cody Bellinger did this offseason, with a great player signing a short-term contract, the most recent market raises an interesting question: how many teams will compete for Soto.
Last winter, some traditional big-spending teams (the Yankees, Boston Red Sox, San Diego Padres, Washington Nationals, Texas Rangers, and New York Mets) passed on many of the players looking for nine-figure contracts, whether because they were rebuilding, focusing on efficiency, or citing the uncertainty created by the regional sports network crisis.
Boras isn’t worried about the last factor affecting Soto’s deal. He believes that teams are acting as if they’ll earn more money due to changes in broadcast rights, so the current uncertainties around TV deals shouldn’t be an excuse for reduced spending. “MLB has made it clear that they think streaming values will surpass the certainty of the existing RSN contracts,” he said. (Although MLB aims to centralize streaming rights into a profitable venture, they have warned teams to prepare for short-term losses.)
This winter, particularly Soto’s free agency, will test this belief. Will the teams that cut spending be willing to offer not just nine-figure deals but potentially record-breaking contracts of $400 million or $500 million for Soto? Last winter, the Dodgers led in spending, committing a billion dollars to Ohtani and Yamamoto, but they likely won’t repeat that. Another team will have to step up, but how many will and how eager will they be?
It’s also worth noting that despite the slow market last winter, there were many bids for Yamamoto, a free agent pitcher with no MLB experience, who eventually secured a 12-year, $325 million deal with the Dodgers. His age was a key factor: Yamamoto is 25, whereas other notable free agents were between 28 and 34 years old—a favorable sign for Soto.
Other factors must be considered from the player’s perspective. Do Soto and Boras want the largest guarantee or a specified deal length? Will deferrals be a possibility for reaching a nominal dollar figure? Is $500 million the magic amount, or is the $460 million NPV value of Ohtani’s deal the minimum acceptable figure?
Boras and Soto will undoubtedly investigate the potential of opt-outs based on the results of the Harper vs. Machado negotiations. Of course, if expectations are not reached on the top-line dollar figure, they will have to consider an alternative, pillow-type contract that maximizes AAV.
Who are Soto’s potential suitors?
It’s still early, but the Yankees and Mets are the most frequently mentioned contenders for Soto according to our panel of baseball insiders. Other teams like the Texas Rangers, Washington Nationals, San Francisco Giants, and Toronto Blue Jays were also discussed multiple times, but they are considered secondary to the New York clubs for now.
Last winter, the Yankees showed interest in Boras clients but didn’t sign any, although they do have a recent history with Boras, having signed Carlos Rodon in 2022 and Cole before that. Soto’s position could create a crowded corner outfield/DH situation for the Yankees, with big-money deals already in place for Giancarlo Stanton through 2027, Aaron Judge through 2028, and Jasson Dominguez, who will soon return from Tommy John surgery and is arbitration-eligible through 2029. Despite these considerations, given Soto’s impressive performance in his first two months in the Bronx, it’s likely the Yankees will be fully committed to retaining him this offseason.
The Mets are less predictable. David Stearns, in his first winter as president of baseball operations, has had a low-key approach so far. It’s uncertain how he and owner Steve Cohen will handle Soto’s free agency, especially since Stearns has no previous experience managing a large payroll and hasn’t revealed his strategy for high-value free agents. Additionally, the Mets have three Boras-represented players entering free agency this offseason: Pete Alonso, J.D. Martinez, and Sean Manaea. The industry’s big question is how disciplined Cohen and Stearns will be in pursuing a top-tier Boras client, especially if multiple such clients are involved.
Regardless of the number of teams pursuing Soto this offseason, it will be interesting to see if his free agency turns into an old-school bidding war, reflecting the league’s current revenue environment and Soto’s unique combination of youth and talent. Recent free agency trends have been driven by analytical, incremental, and cautious approaches to minimize risks rather than aggressively signing top players. Soto’s free agency is expected to break records, but how much it will do so remains to be seen, potentially revealing much about the state of the sport.
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