If everyone in the Yankees’ rotation was healthy right now, he’d probably be pitching for Triple-A Scranton/Wilkes-Barre. However, Gerrit Cole’s right elbow injury in March altered everything for the 25-year-old Gil, who has returned after missing nearly two complete seasons recuperating from Tommy John surgery.
Gil was originally sent to Minor League camp on March 3, but was recalled back when Cole was shut down less than two weeks later. He went on to win a competition for a vacant position in New York’s rotation and hasn’t looked back.
Two months in, Gil is not only thriving in place of Cole, he’s doing a spot-on version of the reigning American League Cy Young Award winner.
Gerrit Cole through 10 starts in 2023:
- 62 2/3 IP
- 2.01 ERA
- 2.97 FIP
- 1.09 WHIP
- 68 strikeouts
Luis Gil through 10 starts in 2024:
- 55 1/3 IP
- 2.11 ERA
- 2.93 FIP
- 1.01 WHIP
- 70 strikeouts
Although the product of Azua, Dominican Republic, made his debut in 2021, his rookie eligibility remains intact, giving him one of the leading prospects for the AL Rookie of the Year Award, which no Yankee pitcher has won since Dave Righetti in 1981.
All stats below are through Monday.
Gil is expected to make his 11th start of the season Wednesday against the Angels, capping up what has been a great month of May. Over his first five outings this month, he was 5-0 with a 0.59 ERA, 35 strikeouts and only 12 hits allowed in 30 2/3 innings.
No pitcher (minimum 200 batters faced) has been tougher to hit this season than Gil, who has limited batters to a minuscule .143 average.
Lowest BA allowed, 2024
Min. 200 batters faced
- Luis Gil: .143
- Ranger Suárez: .171
- Ronel Blanco: .174
- Tyler Glasnow: .181
- Dylan Cease and Zack Wheeler: .184
Gil has also reduced his walk rate in May, dropping to 2.93 from 6.93 walks per nine innings in April. He’s been extremely careful with free passes in his last three starts, allowing only five walks while striking out 25 batters in 18 1/3 innings.
Much to Cole, Gil’s arsenal is built around his high-velocity, high-spin four-seam fastball, which he’s throwing 55.5% of the time in 2024. Their heaters are remarkably similar.
Cole’s 4-seam fastball in 2023:
- 53% usage rate
- 96.7 mph average velocity
- 2,412 rpm average spin rate
- 12 inches of vertical movement (+1.6 inches of rise vs. avg.)
Gil’s 4-seam fastball in 2024:
- 55.5% usage rate
- 96.5 mph average velocity
- 2,475 rpm average spin rate
- 11.9 inches of vertical movement (+1.5 inches of rise vs. avg.)
Luis Gil's 6th, 7th and 8th Ks. pic.twitter.com/Cj8HZt9H6Z
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 18, 2024
Gil’s four-seam fastball is generating excellent swing-and-miss figures — his 30.5% whiff rate ranks third among starters (minimum 100 swings on four-seamers) — and has restricted batters to a .151 batting average this season. He has gotten 41 K’s on four-seamers, making it one of the top strikeout pitches in the Majors.
Most strikeouts recorded on individual pitch type, 2024
- Hunter Greene’s 4-seam fastball: 52 K’s
- Dylan Cease’s slider: 51 K’s
- Chris Sale’s slider: 46 K’s
- Fernando Cruz’s splitter: 42 K’s
- Luis Gil’s 4-seam fastball: 41 K’s
Last season, Cole’s four-seamer had the fifth-highest strikeout rate of any pitch type and the second-highest among four-seamers.
Luis Gil, 98mph ⛽️ pic.twitter.com/3Ok6FY6B9i
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 12, 2024
Gil’s four-seamer has been a significant reason why he has completely controlled the heart of the plate, which is defined as the area more than one baseball’s width inside the strike zone borders.
He’s been the most successful hurler in MLB on pitches in the heart of the zone this season, as proven by the run value leaderboard, which examines the result of every ball thrown and measures its impact on run scoring.
Highest run value on pitches in the heart of the zone, 2024
- 16: Luis Gil (12 on 4-seamers)
- 13: Garrett Crochet
- 13: Shota Imanaga
- 12: Corbin Burnes
- 12: Ranger Suárez
Last season, the top performer in terms of run value on pitches thrown in the central part of the strike zone in Major League Baseball was none other than Cole. This zone is where batters typically have the greatest potential for hitting with power. They managed a slugging percentage of .521 on pitches delivered in this area during this season, as opposed to .320 on pitches situated along the edges, .145 on pitches thrown outside the typical hitting zone, and a mere .012 on pitches completely off-target.
In contrast, against Gil in 2024, hitters have struggled immensely to generate offense on pitches thrown in the heart of the plate, boasting only a .238 slugging percentage. This statistic encompasses a .236 slugging percentage on four-seam fastballs delivered in this zone, illustrating the sheer dominance of his fastball.
Yet, Gil’s prowess isn’t limited to his four-seamer alone this season. He also employs a changeup, one of the Majors’ fastest on average at 91.1 mph, and a slider, both of which have proven exceptionally difficult for batters to make contact with.
Luis Gil, Nasty 90mph Changeup. 👌 pic.twitter.com/JdZ3xOmgnU
— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) May 1, 2024
Gil has held opponents to a combined .134 average with his two secondary offerings, MLB’s fifth-lowest mark allowed on non-fastballs (minimum 75 PAs ending on those pitches).
Lowest BA allowed on breaking and offspeed pitches, 2024
Min. 75 PAs ending on those pitches
- 1. Jordan Hicks: .105
- 2. Ranger Suárez: .128
- 3-T. Bailey Ober: .132
- 3-T. Spencer Turnbull: .132
- 5. Luis Gil: .134
Hitters are batting.130 against Gil’s changeup and.139 against his slider, with 29 strikeouts between the two pitches. His repertory is unique among the Majors. Gil has allowed a batting average of.151 or below on three separate pitch types this season, which no one else can claim (minimum 40 PAs on each pitch type). Only two others, the Cardinals’ Sonny Gray and the Tigers’ Reese Olson, have two such pitches.
If Gil can keep it up, the Yankees will have a difficult decision to make when Cole inevitably returns.
Despite the ace’s absence, the Bronx Bombers boast one of the greatest rotations in MLB, ranking first in ERA (2.72), second in K’s (314) and fourth in innings (310 2/3).
Free-agent acquisition Marcus Stroman has been a terrific addition, Carlos Rodón and Nestor Cortes have rebounded from injury-plagued 2023 seasons and Clarke Schmidt has taken a step forward in his second year as a full-time starter.
None, though, has been as impressive as the player currently filling Cole’s rotation place.
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