The Kansas City Chiefs lost veteran safety Mike Edwards to the Buffalo Bills this summer, and while Justin Reid and Bryan Cook remain on the roster as projected starters at the position, they have not chosen to replace him thus far.
Remember that defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo often uses a three-man rotation at safety to some extent. As of April 1, the in-house prospects for the safety three position were 2023 draft pick Chamarri Conner, veteran special teamer Deon Bush, rookie Trey Dean (a second-year prospect and former UDFA), and practice squad flier Tyree Gillespie.
Is this room completely ready for Organized Team Activities (OTAs) and training camp?
It’s up to the Kansas City front office to decide, but Last Word On Sports NFL writer David Latham believes the Chiefs remain a possible buyer at safety, especially with Reid scheduled to hit free agency in 2025 and Cook returning from injury. On March 31, Latham identified Kansas City as one of five potential trade “fits” for New England Patriots safety Kyle Dugger.
The Patriots applied a transition tag to the defensive playmaker (nine career interceptions, two forced fumbles, and two scores) this summer, and according to Boston Herald reporter Andrew Callahan, Dugger “remains dissatisfied” with their efforts to extend him. He has yet to officially sign the tag, and there is no assurance he will do so.
Callahan anticipates a maximum trade return of a fourth-round pick in the 2017 NFL draft, but he does not rule out New England moving on from the former second-round prospect as they rebuild their squad.
Kyle Dugger Labeled as ‘Clear Upgrade’ on Chiefs Safeties
The huge argument around this trade suggestion would be positive. Is Dugger really worth trading for, and maybe extending, when you already have Reid, Cook, and Conner, among others?
Latham bluntly stated that Dugger would be a “clear upgrade on Kansas City’s current starters” at safety. Let’s look into whether or not that is an accurate evaluation.
In terms of overall production, Dugger had more tackles than any of the Chiefs’ safeties in 2023, totaling 109 and six for a loss. Reid came closest to that total, with 95 tackles and five TFL.
However, tackles are not always an accurate indicator of efficiency. Dugger was awarded with 27 critical defensive “stops” by Pro Football Focus, while Reid led KC with 32. His missed tackle percentage was also slightly lower than Dugger’s, at 8.2% versus 9.6%.
Having saying that, Dugger outperformed Cook and Conner as an open-field tackler. Their missed tackle rates both increased by more than 15% in 2023.
In coverage, Dugger allowed 71.4% of his targets to be caught for 9.9 yards per catch (two touchdowns, two interceptions, and five pass breakups). His passer rating against was 88.5, and he received two penalties.
The Chiefs safeties’ coverage numbers were as follows (according to PFF):
Reid had a 64.4% reception rate, 10.6 yards per grab, four touchdowns allowed, one interception, four pass breakups, a 99.8 passer rating, and three penalties.
Cook: 68.8% reception rate, 18.3 yards per catch, three touchdowns allowed, one interception, zero pass breakups, 125.0 passer rating against, no penalties.
Conner: 83.3% reception rate, 9.1 yards per catch, 0 touchdowns allowed, 1 interception, 0 pass breakups, 75.2 passer rating against, 0 penalties.
Finally, Reid led the pack in most run defensive categories, followed by Dugger and Cook/Conner.
If Traded for, Kyle Dugger Would Likely Start Alongside Justin Reid & Replace Him Long-Term
Based on the stats, Reid and Dugger are clearly the two most well-rounded safeties in this conversation. If the Chiefs pursue him, as Latham predicted, he’ll likely start with Reid in 2024 before eventually replacing him.
This would provide Kansas City with a quality four-man group for this year’s offseason program, removing one potential draft necessity. It would also provide for an exciting safety three rivalry between Cook and Conner, both recent draft picks.
While this deal would undoubtedly increase Spagnuolo’s defensive versatility and depth, it’s unclear whether it’s required given the young players on the roster.
Dugger has a more established track record and reliability at age 28, but he would also want more guaranteed money to prolong. With Cook and Conner battling for a starting spot, there is a higher risk of inconsistent play, but also a more cheap upside if one of the two develops further at the ages of 24 and 23, respectively.
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