Kansas City, Missouri – The Miami Dolphins instantly shift from contending for postseason spots to conducting exit interviews and preparing their offseason. It happens quickly when an NFL club is ousted from the playoffs, as the Dolphins were Saturday night, losing 26-7 to the Chiefs in an AFC wild-card round game in Kansas City in below-zero temperatures.
Miami had a wonderful and entertaining season, but all of the huge stats and spectacular touchdown celebrations did not lead to a playoff victory. The franchise has remained without one since 2000. It did not even receive a home playoff game with a division title despite leading the AFC East by three games with five weeks remaining in the regular season.
Sure, injuries at the end of the season played a factor, but it’s extremely disappointing that a roster with this much talent on it across the board still netted a first-round exit. The Dolphins have several offseason decisions to make. Here’s a look at them:
WHAT TO DO WITH TUA?
Tua Tagovailoa, the Dolphins quarterback, led the NFL in passing yards in 2023, one year after leading the league in quarterback rating. Sounds like a guy who will easily receive a hefty contract extension, right? For the first time in his professional career, he was able to remain healthy for the entire season. Not so fast. Although he has done the most of what has been required of him, Tagovailoa still has issues about his ability to win big games, his ability to manage pressure from opposing defenders, how he handles bad weather, and whether he can perform when one of his top two wide outs is out.
The Dolphins currently have Tagovailoa under contract for the upcoming season with a value just under $23.2 million, as they activated the fifth-year option last offseason. General manager Chris Grier and the front office must now assess whether his performance justifies a new contract. They are likely hesitant to place him among the top-tier quarterback salaries, such as those of Joe Burrow, Lamar Jackson, Jalen Hurts, and Justin Herbert, all exceeding $50 million in average annual salary.
Miami might consider offering a figure in the lower 40s and allowing Tagovailoa to decide whether to accept it. If he declines, or if the Dolphins are not yet ready for a long-term commitment, they could let him play out the fifth year of his contract to gather more information. If uncertainty persists after that, the Dolphins retain the option to franchise tag him, allowing them to continue making decisions on a year-to-year basis.
CHRISTIAN WILKINS’ FREE AGENCY
Discussing fifth-year options, the Dolphins’ standout defensive tackle recently concluded his contract period and delivered another impressive performance overall. Wilkins, who initially held out during parts of training camp over contract concerns but later shifted his focus to the season, needed to demonstrate his ability to contribute to interior pass rush this year. He successfully achieved this, amassing nine sacks—twice his previous highest—and registering 23 quarterback hits.
However, this came at the expense of some of his every-down tackle production, dropping to 65 tackles from 98 in 2022 and 89 in 2021. Teaming up with Zach Sieler, who has already secured an extension, they form a formidable and close-knit duo. Expressing his desire to remain with the Dolphins, Wilkins likely anticipates being compensated among the NFL’s top players in his position, despite not yet having a Pro Bowl accolade.
It’s worth noting that both Tagovailoa and Wilkins are entering negotiations while Miami is projected to be approximately $40 million over the cap in 2024. However, this figure can be managed through trades, cuts, and contract restructuring to create sufficient space for the franchise’s key moves.
COACHING DECISIONS
Coach Mike McDaniel is not currently facing any job uncertainty due to how the season concluded. His position appears secure as the team enters the 2024 season, but if persistent issues prevent the roster from achieving playoff success and legitimate contention, questions may arise thereafter. McDaniel needs to engage in candid self-reflection on various aspects. Frequently criticized for his play-calling, he might consider relinquishing these responsibilities to focus on overseeing the entire operation, delegating play-calling to offensive coordinator Frank Smith. Notably, Smith has been requested for a head coaching interview with the Carolina Panthers.
If Smith secures the job or another one in the league, it raises the question of whether quarterbacks coach Darrell Bevell would step in as the offensive coordinator, given his ample experience in that role, making him an attractive candidate. In the dynamic landscape of coaching changes, McDaniel might also contemplate potential adjustments, such as parting ways with special teams coordinator Danny Crossman. The costliness of kick and punt returns in the team’s final two regular-season losses prompted consideration of Crossman’s position.
However, McDaniel stood by him last offseason despite a challenging season for his unit. Further, there could be smaller position coaching changes, with linebackers coach Anthony Campanile potentially receiving consideration for a defensive coordinator role elsewhere. McDaniel should also evaluate the effectiveness of his replay review system, as winning a challenge on Saturday night only brought his success rate to 3 out of 13 in two seasons as a head coach.
FREE AGENCY
Apart from Wilkins, the Dolphins face important decisions with key free agents, including center Connor Williams, right guard Robert Hunt, outside linebacker Andrew Van Ginkel, safety DeShon Elliott, nose tackle Raekwon Davis, and others. Williams has delivered strong performances in his two seasons at center for Miami but suffered an ACL tear in early December. Hunt, in his four-year career, experienced his first injury—a hamstring issue.
If both are in good health, they could play integral roles in the long-term plans for the offensive line, particularly with right tackle Austin Jackson secured in an extension and Pro Bowl left tackle Terron Armstead aging. Van Ginkel’s season concluded prematurely due to a foot injury, but he proved valuable stepping in for the injured Jaelan Phillips later in the season.
The impact of his injury on his contract status remains uncertain. Beyond free agents, decisions loom for the fifth-year options of the contracts of 2021 first-round picks Jaylen Waddle and Phillips for the 2025 season. Waddle’s decision appears straightforward, while Phillips’ situation, initially promising midway through the season, is now complicated by a torn Achilles that might sideline him for training camp and the beginning of the next season. Given the salary cap constraints, not all free agents are likely to be retained, especially if significant contracts are extended to either Tagovailoa or Wilkins. Miami may explore more cost-effective options elsewhere.
DRAFT YOUNG QUALITY TALENT
For the first time in three seasons, the Dolphins will have a first-round pick. That is, assuming they do not move it before the late April draft. Miami must succeed with this selection. Their first picks in the last two rounds, second-round cornerback Cam Smith in 2023 and third-round linebacker Channing Tindall in 2022, have seen little defensive action.
With so many expensive contracts on the books, the Dolphins must be able to plug gaps with great rookies in order to remain competitive until bringing in more expensive free agents becomes unfeasible. Grier typically chooses the best player available, but a well-rounded tight end may be a valuable addition.
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