According to recent expected goals figures, one Birmingham City player is the league’s biggest underperformer.
Birmingham City’s season has been a mixed bag, with the club rising to the lofty heights of the top six under John Eustace before plummeting to the bottom half under Wayne Rooney. Goal scoring wasn’t an issue at the start of the season, but it has since become one, and one player in particular is to blame, according to a newly released dataset.
Scott Hogan, who was once fairly clinical for Blues, scoring once every three games or so in previous seasons, has struggled this season.
The Irishman, who has been chastised by some Blues fans, has only scored once in 13 appearances. To make matters worse, he turns out to be the biggest underperformer in the Sky Bet Championship in 2023/24.
BetVictor examined each player’s goals scored and expected goals figure, calculating the overall underperformance or overperformance statistics. Hogan leads the former with 3.5 xG but only one goal converted, giving him a -2.5 underperformance. Both Haji Wright of Coventry City and Sinclair Armstrong of Queens Park Rangers are at -2.2.
On the other end of the spectrum is Norwich City’s Jon Rowe, who has seven goals despite only accumulating 2.3 xG. This results in a +4.7 overperformance for the winger, well ahead of West Bromwich Albion midfielder John Swift (+4.1) and Sunderland wideman Jack Clarke (+3.0). The Blues will be hoping that Hogan can turn the tide sooner rather than later.
Championship’s biggest overperformers
- Jon Rowe (Norwich): 7 goals from 2.3 xG means an overperformance of +4.7.
- John Swift (West Brom): 6 goals from 1.9 xG means an overperformance of +4.1.
- Jack Clarke (Sunderland): 9 goals from 6.0 xG means an overperformance of +3.0.
- Nathan Broadhead (Ipswich): 6 goals from 3.6 xG means an overperformance of +2.4.
- Arnór Sigurdsson (Blackburn): 3 goals from 0.7 xG means an overperformance of +2.3.
Championship’s biggest underperfomers
- Scott Hogan (Birmingham): 1 goal from 3.5 xG means an underperformance of -2.5.
- Haji Wright (Coventry): 2 goals from 4.2 xG means an underperformance of -2.2.
- Sinclair Armstrong (QPR): 1 goal from 3.2 xG means an underperformance of -2.2.
- Georginio Rutter (Leeds): 2 goals from 4.1 xG means an underperformance of -2.1.
- Josh Windass (Sheffield Weds): 0 goals from 2.0 xG means an underperformance of -2.0.
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